Mar 20, 2024
2023/24 Argentina Soybeans Rated 30% GD/EX up 1%
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The rainfall in Argentina last week favored north-central, northern, and eastern Argentina. Heavy amounts were recorded in eastern Buenos Aires where there may be some localized flooding. Rainfall is expected in Buenos Aires on Monday with more rain on Wednesday in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios. Rainfall next week in Argentina is expected to be more limited.
In the northern areas, yields of the early planted soybeans are expected to be in the range of 2,500 to 4,000 kg/ha (37 to 60 bu/ac). In the southern areas, yields of the early planted soybeans are expected to be in the range of 2,800 to 4,000 or as high as 4,500 kg/ha (41.7 to 60 or as high as 67 bu/ac). A few fields of soybeans may already be harvested, but it is less than 1%.
I thought the conditions in Argentina warranted a slight increase in the production estimate, so the soybean estimate was increased 1.0 million tons to 51.0 million. The U.S. Attache lowered the soybean estimate 0.5 million tons to 49.5million, whereas the Rosario Grain Exchange increased the soybean estimate 0.5 million tons to 50.0 million. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has the crop at 52.5 million and the USDA is at 50.0 million.
The soybeans in Argentina were rated 16% poor/very poor, 54% fair, and 30% good/excellent as of late last week. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent was up 1% from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 23% short/very short and 77% favorable/optimum. The percentage of the soil moisture rated favorable/optimum was up 5% from the prior week. Below is the Argentina soybean rating for March 14th from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Feb. 7, 2024 | 22 (44) | 31 (16) | 40 (61) | 60 (39) |
| Feb. 14, 2024 | 19 (53) | 31 (10) | 27 (68) | 73 (32) |
| Feb. 21, 2024 | 17 (58) | 31 (2) | 33 (72) | 67 (28) |
| Feb. 28, 2024 | 18 (66) | 30 (2) | 27 (77) | 73 (23) |
| Mar. 6, 2024 | 17 (60) | 29 (3) | 28 (73) | 72 (27) |
| Mar. 13, 2024 | 16 (75) | 30 (2) | 23 (70) | 77 (30) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages