May 24, 2023
2022/23 Argentina Soybeans 70% Harvested, Yields Disappoint
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
It just keeps getting worse for the soybeans in Argentina. The yields of the early planted soybeans are terrible and the yields of the double crop soybeans are even worse. To top it off, soybean abandonment is now estimated at approximately 2.0 million hectares or about 12.8% of planted. Therefore, I lowered the 2022/23 Argentina soybean estimate 1.0 million tons this week to 22.0 million.
Soybeans in Argentina continue to underperform compared to corn. Of the soybeans harvested thus far, the average soybean yield is estimated at 1,520 kg/ha (22.6 bu/ac), which is down 0.6 bu/ac from the prior week. Soybean yields in the northern core region are averaging about 1,800 kg/ha (26.8 bu/ac), while yields in the southern core are averaging about 1,500 kg/ha (22.3 bu/ac). In northern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires, soybean yields are averaging approximately 1,900 kg/ha (28.3 bu/ac).
Astoundingly, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is now estimating that 2,087,840 hectares of soybeans will be abandoned (5,156,960 acres), which would equate to approximately 12.8% of what was planted. The Grain Exchange lowered their soybean estimate this week by 1.5 million tons to 21.0 million.
The average soybean yield in Argentina is now below that of the 2008/09 growing season (14 years ago), which was 1,920 kg/ha (28.6 bu/ac).
Below is a chart from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showing the last six years of soybean production in Argentina in million tons.
The 2022/23 Argentina soybeans were 70% harvested as of late last week compared to 85% last year and 85% average. This represents an advance of 18% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans were 90-95% harvested while 40-60% of the soybeans were harvested in southern Argentina and 25-35% harvested in far northern Argentina. The early planted soybeans were 80% harvested while the later planted soybeans were 44% harvested.
The soybeans in Argentina were rated 56% poor/very poor, 40% fair, and 4% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage was unchanged compared to the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 49% short/very short and 51% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage was down 3% from the prior week.
Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for May 18, 2023.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Apr. 12, 2023 | 65 (15) | 3 (24) | 53 (17) | 47 (79) |
| Apr. 20, 2023 | 64 (15) | 3 (18) | 51 (20) | 49 (79) |
| Apr. 27, 2023 | 65 (15) | 3 (18) | 52 (18) | 48 (79) |
| May 4, 2023 | 63 (17) | 2 (14) | 51 (22) | 49 (77) |
| May 11, 2023 | 59 (23) | 4 (13) | 46 (26) | 54 (73) |
| May 18, 2023 | 56 (21) | 4 (14) | 49 (28) | 51 (71) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages