Oct 07, 2025
October Weather in Brazil - Hotter and Dryer Than Normal
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
October is a transition month between the dry season and the wet season and is usually one of the warmest months of the year in Brazil, especially in central and eastern Brazil. October usually starts off somewhat dry with rainfall picking up during the second half of the month. The summer rains usually start first in western Brazil in September and October and work their way eastward in November and December.
Thus far this growing season, southern Brazil has received rain during September and early October while central and eastern Brazil has received light and scattered rain, if any at all, with very warm temperatures. The near-term forecast is calling for continued rain in southern Brazil with hot and dry conditions in central and eastern Brazil.
The meteorological firm Climatempo is forecasting a hot and dry first half of October in central and eastern Brazil with increased chances of rainfall during the second half of October. If verified, it should slow down soybean planting in central Brazil. That would not be a major concern if rainfall returns during the second half of October. If the rainfall does not pick up during the second half of October, soybean yields might start to be impacted and the safrinha corn planting could be delayed.
The soybean planting pace in Parana has been the fastest of any state in Brazil and it should continue to be that way during the month of October. The weather in Mato Grosso has been OK in much of the state with enough rain for many farmers to start planting soybeans. It has been very hot in central Brazil with temperatures as high as 40° (104°F) or more.
A weak La Nina is expected to develop over the next several months which may result in below normal rainfall in far southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul during November and December. If La Nina develops, it is expected to be short lived.