May 07, 2026
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 134.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall in Brazil over the weekend was confined to southern Brazil with the heaviest amounts favoring southern Mato Gosso do Sul, southern Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Rain should continue favoring southern Brazil this week improving the soil moisture for safrinha corn. Most of central Brazil will receive only limited rainfall this week as the dry season starts to take hold.
While the far southern safrinha corn received rain over the previous week, further north in central Brazil, dry weather has prevailed for the last several weeks and there is limited rainfall in the forecast.
Conab is rating the 2025/26 safrinha corn as 26.1% in vegetative development, 44% pollinating, 29.2% filling grain, and 1% maturing. Recent rain has helped to stabilize the safrinha corn in Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Dryness concerns have now started to develop further north in Goias, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Tocantins.
May is expected to be a dry month in Brazil, which could still impact corn yields in central and south-central Brazil. One or two more good rains during May (if they occur) would be very beneficial for the corn. For now, I left the corn estimate unchanged at 134.0 million tons, which is on the low end of the estimates. I think we need to wait and see if there is any meaningful rainfall during May before we make a final judgement on the safrinha corn production.
Mato Grosso - Weather has generally been favorable for safrinha corn in Mato Grosso except for the southeastern quadrant of the state. Most of the corn is filling grain and production is expected to set a new record.
Parana - Recent rain has improved the condition of the safrinha corn in Parana according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). Safrinha corn in Parana is 35% in vegetative development, 35% pollinating, 29% filling grain, and 1% maturing. Safrinha production is estimated at 17.39 million tons. Harvesting of the first corn crop in Parana is almost complete with a forecast of 3.94 million tons, up 30% from last year.