May 08, 2024

Soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil Hurt by Flooding

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

As the soybean harvest in Brazil nears completion, the remaining concern is the situation in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. As outlined in the previous article, heavy rain inundated the state last week, prompting the governor to declare a state of emergency.

Before the heavy rains moved in, the soybeans in the state were 76% harvested, which meant that there were an estimated 4-5 million tons of soybeans still in the field. In their April crop report, Conab had estimated the soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul at 21.89 million tons. Emater had estimated the crop at 22.25 million tons. Most analysts in Brazil are estimating that the state might lose 10-15% of the soybeans or 1-2 million tons and they are estimating the state's soybean production at 19-20 million tons.

The extent of the damage in Rio Grande do Sul is still being evaluated, so I left the Brazil soybean estimate unchanged this week at 147.0 million tons. Conab will release their May Crop Report on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, but it is uncertain if they will have a complete picture of the situation in Rio Grande do Sul when the report is released.